2024: Opposition Leadership - the TINA Factor & TMC’s Misadventure

 Until voter fatigue set in to break the Congress Party’s grip over India’s corridors of power in 1967, the political situation in the country was pretty similar to what it is today except that BJP has replaced the Congress. There is hardly any precedence to relate the present situation. Even in 1977 when late Indira Gandhi was unseated following emergency, the situation of the Congress party was not like what it became in 2014 and 2019.

After its victory in the 2014 elections, there was a wide perception that BJP has acquired virtual political monopoly. This perception surfaced again when they returned with a bigger mandate. However there have been instances where the BJP has been convincingly defeated and outsmarted. The defeat of BJP in Bihar (2015), Delhi (2015 & 2020), Maharashtra (2019) and Chhattisgarh (2018) show that this election machine can be defeated (I have not mentioned West Bengal because I don’t see it as a defeat of BJP).

Can this be replicated in 2024? Definitely. Is the Opposition on the right path to achieve it? No. This essay is an effort to call out the recent misadventures in the Opposition and ponder over the ways with which Opposition can trounce the BJP in 2024.

Opposition Leadership

Recently, there have been debates over Prashant Kishor’s tweet that ‘let opposition leadership be decided democratically’. This sentence from Mr Kishor, famed to be a political strategist, astonishes me. In the earlier portions of the tweet he says that ‘the idea and space that congress represents is vital for a strong opposition’. These two sentences, in my view are contrary to each other. Despite the electoral drubbing in 2019, the Congress party garnered about 12 crore votes (BJP - 22 crore) and about 20% of the vote share (this is 5 times more than that of TMC), this is something which cannot be ignored. Despite facing defeats in most assembly elections since 2014, the Congress has a respectable vote share in most states and remains the only party that has a foothold in every district of the country. Can any other party acquire that space in two and a half years? Isn’t that every ambition of Mr Kishor against democracy?

No doubt there are deep rooted organisation issues within the Congress. But the fact is that the Congress Party is in direct contest with the BJP in about 200 of the 543 seats. Sidelining the Congress in these seats will only make BJP’s prospects better. Therefore, Congress emerges as the natural fulcrum of the anti-BJP bloc as it is the only party that can win maximum seats among the non-BJP parties. The TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor would apply here.

Mamata’s Misadventure

Much hype is being created over the West Bengal Chief Minister’s proposed Expansionist Mission. I don’t see this as Mamata trying to pitch herself as the next PM. To be fair to her, Mamata is a seasoned politician and would know that such a situation would not emerge in her favour. Let us not forget that the TMC was in ‘friendship’ with BJP (especially in Parliament) till demonetisation happened. Mamata took BJP seriously only when she realised that it was slowly gaining traction in Bengal.

Her present ‘national mission’ too, in my view, is to save her Bengal fortress. She is apprehensive that the Modi factor might damage TMC’s prospects in Bengal in 2024. The BJP might have lost Bengal but has emerged as the principal challenger to TMC in the state. In 2019, BJP had 40% vote share and in 2021 it polled 38%. Conventionally BJP adds 8% votes to its assembly tally. In this case it would take the BJP’s tally to 46%. So the TMC, with the help of Prashant Kishor, is trying to salvage that by projecting herself as the PM candidate.

Way Ahead for Opposition

The fundamental problem in present Opposition is the lack of an organisationally strong Congress. Previous ‘third front’ experiments have failed miserably and the present electorate doesn't prefer instability. Therefore, Congress has to be a cementing factor in any non-BJP alliance. What the Congress must now do is to continuously engage the party workers in agitational and mass contact programs (this has begun in few states). While the Congress has vociferously challenged the BJP at the ideological level, it has so far failed to translate that into a platform to mobilize the masses. We must realize that the voter has moved beyond the secular-communal narrative. An alternate narrative must be built on the governance model of Congress and other Opposition parties ruled states while isolating the BJP for its inept handling of economy, COVID pandemic, foreign policy and other such issues. The level of unity must go beyond seat sharing. What is required is an intellectual foundation on the basis of a common minimum program.

The united Opposition must recognize that while it tries to handle the hindutva hegemony, it will also have to fade off counter polarization attempts from the BJP. Opposition must mobilize the masses on issues like reservation, privatization, farmers’ interests, education & health, etc... forging unity on such broader issues would be easier. Occasional shows of unity would not help, parties must run a sustained campaign on these issues if they are to resonate among the masses.

A strong Opposition is a pre-requisite for a healthy democracy. BJP might be a dominant force to face but a one party centric concentration of political power is not feasible for long time. Besides, India has shown the urge for change every ten years. If the BJP cannot be defeated in 2024 despite its misdeeds, we have none to blame but ourselves. It’s time to introspect and hit the ground running, else history won’t forgive the Opposition.