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KARNATAKA: THE BATTLE FOR CREDIBILITY

By Varun Hari Prasad


Karnataka becomes very interesting because till date, it has bucked the national trend. In six days from today, the people of Karnataka will vote to elect a new government for the next five years. Campaigning has touched its peak and no party is willing to leave any stone unturned to claim the seat of power in the Vidhana Soudha. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has plunged himself to the frontline of the election by crisscrossing the state. Never before in the history of this country has a Prime Minister been so involved in a state election. Undoubtedly, Mr Modi has been BJP’s mascot. His strategy of projecting himself as the solution to all problems has given him victory in states like Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. 

This strategy would have been defeated in Gujarat had Mr Modi not invoked Gujarati asmita because of which the BJP managed to scrape through with a slim margin of seven seats. The Prime Minister is now trying to use the same plan in Karnataka.

Gujarat and Karnataka: The Differences

In Gujarat, Mr Modi was the ‘son of the soil’ and controlled the narrative whereas in Karnataka, it is Mr Siddaramaiah. The Prime Minister could establish a direct connect with the people in Gujarat as he spoke in his mother tongue but in Karnataka, he has the barrier of language is forced to use a translator. In Gujarat, Mr Modi asked the people to vote for him but in Karnataka, the BJP is seeking votes in the name of Yeddyurappa, its Chief Ministerial candidate.

The Siddha Sarkara’s Performance

When Mr Siddaramaiah came to office in 2013, Karnataka’s Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) was ₹6, 43, 292 crore (at constant prices). This has now gone up to ₹ 9, 49,111 crore in 2017-18. The rate of unemployment in Karnataka (@ 2.6%) is one of the lowest in the country. The per capita income has more than doubled in the five year period (from ₹77,309 to ₹1,74,551) and is way above the national rate. Most importantly, all fiscal parameters are under control.

Mr Siddaramaiah’s government has busted the myth that a populist government is anti-growth. While pioneering ‘populist’ schemes such as Anna Bhagya, Arogya Bhagya and Indira Canteen, he has also propelled the state to become the most preferred investment destination in the country. The work is visible for everyone to see.

The Evolution of Siddaramaiah

Until a few months or probably a year ago, Mr Siddaramaiah was perceived to be a sleeping Chief Minister. But now, his image in the public has undergone a massive transformation. Siddaramaiah who was once very averse to the social media, is today probably the most active Chief Minister on social media and is using it as a very effective campaign tool. 

Apart from that, he has also proved to be an astute politician. By stressing on ‘Kannada Swabhimana’ Mr Siddaramaiah has blunted the oratory prowess of Mr Modi. By recommending a separate religion tag for Lingayats he has taken the gamble of causing a significant hole in the BJP’s pocket. Most importantly, by labelling the JD(S) as B-team of the BJP, he is trying to take away the minority votes from Mr Deve Gowda. With several ‘bhagyas’ he has positioned himself as a strong AHINDA leader and is constantly setting the narrative, forcing his opponents to respond to it. 

Will Karnataka stop Modi-Shah Juggernaut? 

History tells us that no party in Karnataka has returned to power for a second consecutive time (since Ramakrishna Hegde). On that count, the Congress party is up against history. On the other hand, the Modi-Shah combo is up against a shrewd regional satrap in Siddaramiah. The only other instance where the duo had a tough battle was in Bihar where they lost to the Lalu-Nitish combo. But one has to candidly admit that Karnataka is Modi’s toughest battle so far and this is evident from the fact that BJP is not claiming an outright victory. Their only strategy is to prevent the Congress from getting an absolute majority and then apply its tried and tested formula of Goa, Manipur and Meghalaya to form a government with the JD(S).

The Congress on the other hand is re-energised and is going all out to ensure that it retains its southern bastion. The Congress must convert peoples’ discontent over the slide in national governance, unemployment, faulty GST, and intolerance into votes against the BJP. It must present an alternate vision to the first time voter in order to prevent them from being lured by the ‘jumlas’ of the BJP

Overall, the JD(S) has nothing to lose in this battle. The Congress’ credibility as the principal opposition party and as potential leader of an anti-BJP front is at stake. For the BJP it is a prestige battle for Prime Minister Modi and his chances to claim a second term. Whatever the results are, it will play a critical role in shaping national politics as we approach 2019.   

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