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The Politics Behind Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA)

By Varun Hari Prasad

On the evening of 11 March 2024 the Union Ministry of Home Affairs notified the rules for implementation of Citizen Amendment Act 2019. The BJP has described it as a 'redemption of their election promise' while the Opposition has called it an 'attack on secular fabric, of the country.

While I have already written about the Act in December 2019 itself, I wish to explore the politics behind CAA in this essay.

Complicated Landscape of West Bengal Politics

The Namasudras historically resided in the eastern and central parts of undivided Bengal. Slowly in the 19th Century, this caste group mobilised under a socio-economic protest sect called Matua. This got them their current name of Matua-Namasudra. They migrated to India in large numbers during the Partition and in 1971 during the Bangladesh Liberation War. Most of the population of this community is concentrated in North 24 Parganas and Nadia districts of West Bengal. The community also has a sizeable presence in Purba Bardhaman, South 24 Parganas and Cooch Behar districts.

As per some estimates, the Matua electorate is pegged at around 1.75 crore. Their support is crucial for any party to win in Bangaon, Barasat, Ranaghat, Krishnanagar, and Cooch Behar Lok Sabha constituencies. The community also plays a key role in around 30 assembly constituencies of West Bengal.

2019 & 2021 Results

In 2019 the BJP won the Bangaon (SC), Ranaghat (SC) and Cooch Behar (SC) Lok Sabha seats with huge margins while Trinamool Congress won Barasat and Krishnanagar seats. These 5 constituencies are dominated by the Matua community.Riding on the promise of bringing CAA, BJP won 18 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal (it is BJP's best performance in the State) with a lead in 33 of the total 68 SC reserved assembly constituencies. Of these 33 seats, 26 are dominated by the Matua community.

However, the BJP did not implement the CAA immediately after enactment as promised during elections. There is sufficient data to suggest that this angered a section of the Matua community and that this impact was felt in the 2021 Assembly election.

In 2021, of the 26 Matua community dominated assembly seats, BJP could retain the lead of Lok Sabha and win in only 14 seats whereas the Trinamool Congress bounced back by winning the remaining 12 seats. Even though the BJP led in assembly segments of Bangaon (SC), Ranaghat (SC) and Cooch Behar (SC) Lok Sabha seats, its vote share took a hit in comparison to Lok Sabha elections.

TMC's Advance

Having noticed this trend, the TMC began to device a strategy to retain its citadel. I am of the view that TMC's sudden assault on the Congress, after the friendly overtures post 2021 victory, was part of this strategy (as I had written in an earlier essay under sub-heading Mamata's Misadventure). Mamata's recent flip-flops can also be attributed this.

This strategy has worked to an extent for the TMC and has put the BJP in a difficult spot in West Bengal.

BJP's Mission 400

To be fair, the BJP also knows that it is fighting their toughest election since 2014. That is the reason for which it is showing desperation to forge alliances with parties like BJD and TDP whom the BJP saw as challengers to its expansion. Mr Modi and Mr Amit Shah have shown willingness to sacrifice the ambition of forming Government in Odisha & Andhra Pradesh by settling for very less assembly seats in the alliance with TDP and BJD (yet to be announced).

Mr Modi and Mr Amit Shah seem to have recognised the fact that it is difficult for BJP to get 272 seats on its own this time. To ensure BJP remains in a formidable position to form the Government once again, they need to ensure their tally is as close as possible to 272.

With the resurgence of SP in Uttar Pradesh, Mahagatbandhan (RJD+Congress+Left) in Bihar and MVA in Maharashtra, BJP knows that retaining their previous tally in West Bengal is crucial for them. Hence, the BJP has once again turned to CAA at the fag end of its second term.

The BJP now plans to go to the people saying they have implemented CAA, which was promised by the PM himself in 2019, before he comes to ask for votes again.

Conclusion

While the mainstream media may call it a masterstroke, to me it reflects the difficult situation which BJP finds itself in. The notification of CAA rules at this stage only shows that they have played the last card at their disposal for West Bengal. The voters of West Bengal have displayed great political wisdom by voting differently in Parliament and Assembly elections.

Will the voters call out this bluff of the BJP in elections? We need to wait till May-end to know that.

 


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